Consultant's Report: Economic Possibilities for the Pike

Change is going to happen. Do we want to recognize that things will be different on Rockville Pike and improve it? Tower Records closed because people don’t buy CDs that much anymore. Koons Ford is gone and we wonder what will be on that property. At the May 6, 2008, Rockville Pike: Second Report to the Community, ERA Economic Research Consultants presented a description of market trends and how they could shape development on Rockville Pike.

Even though the housing market is experiencing a slowdown, a substantial residential, multi-family demand of about 200-300 units could be absorbed in the next 5-7 years. People are looking for a place to live if the right product is available. Who are these people? Why they are the Echo Boomers (which I think is an excellent name for a rock band!). Each day 50,000 baby boomers turn 62 and their children are taking over. They don’t want traditional subdivisions or high rises. The future is compact development with mixed use. The condo market downturn that caused Town Center to go to rental units is not permanent. Markets have a way of self-correcting. Even with Town Center, Twinbrook Commons, and the development outside Rockville’s borders, there will still be a need for housing.

The demand for offices is more limited because of traffic congestion. Some office space could be feasible by the Metro stations with a focus on small, professional services, perhaps on second or third floors above retail.

Retail will be the primary economic driver for the Pike. Mixed-use with two-to-five story buildings would be best, but it was stressed that this was not recommended for everywhere on the Pike. Across the country, traditional mall developers are no longer building traditional malls. Rather the trend is to build pedestrian-scaled, outdoor developments like Town Center. We will need to decide how much of this type of development we would want on the Pike.

Currently, people will tough out the traffic because they can shop at certain stores on the Pike which are not available anywhere else nearby, such as REI. (I understand since I love REI!) Rockville Pike is therefore a regional draw. The “little guys” were driven out of the southern part of the study area and replaced by national chains. People are concerned that this would continue to happen. Nationally, consumers are interested in locally-owned businesses and are tired of “cookie-cutter” stores. A property owner will want to get the most leverage, so there is no guarantee that they will go with a local retailer, but hopefully they will take such chances and provide a diversity of retail.

When we take all of these factors into consideration and decide on a vision, how will it become a reality? As opportunities arise and there is turnover, business owners can be approached to participate in “Catalyst Projects”. In exchange for a site plan, owners may include civic and public uses to provide a better product. As long as these plans are transformative, they will help us reach the planned vision over time.

You can plan the Pike by participating in a community design charrette starting on Saturday, May 31, 2008 from 9 AM to 12 noon at Richard Montgomery High School. You’ll have the opportunity to work in small groups, answer design questions, and draw your plan on a map. Childcare will be available. Charrette opportunities will continue through June 3rd.